战区弹药保障敏捷供应链优化模型及实现算法

针对现有的供需矛盾,在分析战区弹药保障供应链管理任务需求的基础上,初步构建了战区弹药保障敏捷供应链管理框架及运行机制,分析了战区弹药保障敏捷供应链的供需协同机制,重点对多级库存优化控制模型、多级弹药配送决策优化模型及实现算法进行了研究,提出了战区弹药保障敏捷供应链建设的具体对策。     

Stage life testing

In progressive censoring, items are removed at certain times during the life test. Commonly, it is assumed that the removed items are used for further testing. In order to take into account information about these additional testing in inferential procedures, we propose a two‐step model of stage life testing with one fixed stage‐change time which incorporates information about both the removed items (further tested under different conditions) and those remaining in the current life test. We show that some marginal distributions in our model correspond either to progressive censoring with a fixed censoring time or to a simple‐step stress model. Furthermore, assuming a cumulative exposure model, we establish exact inferential results for the distribution parameters when the lifetimes are exponentially distributed. An extension to Weibull distributed lifetimes is also discussed.     

高寒山地边境反击作战炮兵群火力分配

未来高寒山地边境反击作战，爆发突然，进程极快，必须在被敌发现前高效发挥炮兵群火力，突出作战力量集约，作战体系对抗，实现火力运用最优化、打击效能最大化、弹药消耗和自身损失最小化。把“基于效果”理论运用到指挥决策中，通过研究地理环境、敌情、统计数据分析、优化效能参数，并融入无线传感器网络分簇算法思想，提出一种炮兵群火力运用优化算法，在一定程度上能快速、高效地解决高寒山地边境反击作战炮兵群火力运用的问题，对支持未来作战指挥决策，具有一定的现实意义。     

Analysis for the residual prestress of composite barrel for railgun with tension winding

Based on the elastic theory of cylindrical shells and the theory of composite laminates, a prediction model for the residual prestress of the simplified round composite barrel for railgun is established. Only the fibre pretension is considered in this model. A three dimensional numerical simulation for the residual prestress in the railgun barrel is carried out, by combining the temperature differential method with the element birth and death technology. The results obtained by the two methods are compared. It reveals that the distribution trends of residual prestress are consistent. And the difference for residual prestress in the filament wound composite housing of barrel is relatively small. The same finite element method is used to analysis the residual prestress in the non-simplified composite barrels for railgun, which are under different control modes of winding tension. The results mean that the residual prestress in barrel will increase while the taper coefficient for winding is decreasing. Therefore, the sealing performance in bore is improved, but the strength of the filament wound composite housing drops. In addition, the axial and circumferential residual prestress in the filament wound composite housing with constant torque winding are close to the ones in iso-stress design for barrel.     

阻化烟煤堆非稳态温度场计算

依据实验测得的干、水湿和阻化烟煤氧化反应的动力学参数 ,引入了氧传质模型和水蒸气平衡模型 ,利用计算机编程对干、水湿和阻化烟煤堆内的一维非稳态自热过程的模型分别进行差分计算 ,求得相应煤堆内的非稳态温度场。结果表明 ,采用简化的一维自热过程的非稳态数学模型计算 ,可以剖析氧传递、水蒸气平衡和阻化处理对煤堆自热的影响 ,可以评价实际煤堆的自热危险性和判断烟煤堆的阻化处理效果     

基于分形理论的目标航路预测

电磁干扰条件下解决断续航路预测问题对防空兵有效抗击空中目标至关重要。针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测航路的分形方法。在分形理论的基础上,研究了其用于目标断续航路预测的基本思路,建立了基于分形的目标航路预测模型,并对模型进行了求解。最后,利用建立的分形模型对雷达丢失目标后的目标航路进行了预测,通过实例体现了分形方法在用于航路预测时的准确性、灵活性和易实现等特点。结果表明,用该法对断续目标航路的预测具有一定的借鉴意义。     

空域窗射击舰炮火力分布方法

空域窗射击方式是近程防御舰炮武器提高对高速复杂机动反舰导弹射击效力的有效途径，研究论证舰炮射击区域内射弹分布方法是实现舰炮空域窗射击的关键。运用射击效力分析方法，从“软”、“硬”两个途径，研究了射击诸元分布法和炮管预置角法两种空域窗射击火力分布方法，对其火力分布方式、范围及火力密度进行了研究，可为舰炮研制及使用提供参考。     

基于矢量分配的组合导航容错联邦滤波算法

针对高动态环境下飞行器组合导航系统因不确定故障导致导航精度下降的问题,提出了一种基于矢量信息分配的容错联邦滤波算法。设计矢量形式的故障检测函数,对各观测量进行单独的故障程度划分,克服了将故障子系统所有观测量同时隔离的缺陷；根据观测量是否异常,重构时变量测噪声矩阵和信息分配矢量系数,对子滤波器的状态变量进行信息分配,在隔离故障子系统异常观测量的同时,最大限度地利用正确观测信息。仿真结果表明,采用该算法能够充分发挥各导航子系统的优势,极大提高了导航子系统信息利用率,具有较高的精确性和容错性。     

Insurgent courts in civil wars: the three pathways of (trans)formation in today’s Syria (2012–2017)

As part of research on the meso-foundations of conflict, the field of ‘rebel governance’ examines political institutions that regulate the affairs of civilians in wartime as well as their relations with armed actors. Judicial institutions play an important role in this and research has shown that they are widespread among both historical and current insurgencies. However, usually these bodies have been analysed in the context of one hegemonic faction like the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka and the Afghan Taliban. What is missing so far is an analysis of different pathways of (trans)formation of rebel courts. As exemplified by the three case studies of judicial institutions in Eastern Ghouta, Idlib and Aleppo, these are shaped by the distribution of power between ‘same-side’ groups, yielding unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar constellations. The analysis is located on the meso or movement level of insurgent social structures, complementing research on the micro and macro levels.     

理想气体绝热过程的微观实质

从分子动理论出发,建立理想气体绝热过程的微观模型,用麦克斯韦速度分布函数导出其过程方程.